Nothing leads to success like failure
One of my favourite books in recent years has been Freakonomics. Anyone who has read that book will realize that the title of this blog is a homage to that great piece. I have always had a problem doing business with people who wear religion like a badge. Most of the truly religious people I know have a personal relationship with their god and see it as a private matter. I just find that people who advertise their beliefs have an arrogance that allows them to excuse themselves from conforming to the everyday norms of right and wrong that people take for granted. My definition of a fundamentalist is someone who has read just one book and believes that this one book contains all the truths and knowledge in the world. This book may be a holy one such as the Bible, The Koran or a political one such as The Communist Manifesto or Reflections on a Revolution in France. The world is simply more complicated than that. What does all this have to do with business? I have come across many people who I would describe as business ‘fascists’. These are people who have been stuck in the same industry or business for many years and rigidly refuse to accept new ideas or new ways of doing things. Like Pascal famously said “Nothing leads to failure like success!” Indeed I have a very hard time working with entrepreneurs who are successful in one field because they believe they know all there is to know about the business. These Entrepreneurs tend to have low-quality staff working for them as talent needs to flourish and of course try new things that may or may not work. The problem then arises when these Entrepreneurs want to become business angels and invest in a business. My advice to companies is to stay away from accepting any investment from a business fascist. How to spot a business fascist 1) They have only had success in one limited field 2) They run their business like a fiefdom 3) They have a massive ego (find out who does their PR for them - and how much that would cost) 4) They love the sound of their own voice 5) They will only invest if they are made chairman or a Non-Exec 6) You can find few people who have a good word to say about them 7) They have a very weak network. Networks are a very good measure of how people are seen - not what they are worth. When they talk to you - you feel you are being preached to One of my favourite quotes sums up my problem with fundamentalists very neatly.
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If you believe in the theory of efficient markets you would accept that it is not possible to consistently beat the market. And yet many people consistently do that - including my hero Warren Buffet. How do they do that? Many successful investors take a very long term view and are prepared to take a contrarian view to the rest of the market. The buffet is perhaps the best example of that. Most of us realize that when cab drivers start telling you to buy shares, property or gold - it is time to get out of that market. Buffet seems to have a sense of picking up on this before it gets to the ‘cab level’. Having said that, many of us can get the timing wrong. The current UK property market is a good example. I along with many others (including The Economist!) thought that the market had peaked four years ago. In the last four years, prices have gone up at least 40%. Even allowing for the worst predictions of prices falling 25%, most people who stayed in the market will still be better off than having sold off when clear signs were available that the market was overheating. As with all things, it is never as easy as following ‘six easy steps’ to investment success. Nonetheless, my advice to investors in startups would be: 1) Always take a very long-term view - with startups you should be looking at five years at least. 2) Follow your own judgment. You may be wrong (and you are more likely to be wrong more times than right!) But you will be able to live with that. Trust me, the investments I have hated are the ones that have gone wrong when I trusted someone else. 3) Do your own research. A day visiting a business and talking to managers and customers is a brilliant start - don’t outsource this to someone else. 4) Look at who else has invested. Even if I think something is brilliant - I need to know that at least one other person has also been persuaded (this does not conflict with point 2!) 5) Develop a set of criteria that works for you (readers familiar with my blog will know what mine are). 6) Above all, make sure you understand what the business does, how they make money and make sure you trust the management team. Happy Investing! |
AboutHello! My name is Paul Mylovitch. At present I am an entrepreneur earning my living on my own. I am proud to say that because I’m on my way of accomplishing my dearest dream: to spend my time as I want to and following only my own priorities. I discovered how to create my own financial security in the new economy doing what I like. Twenty years ago it would have been an impossible dream. It has been taken me longtime to get here and I learned some tough lessons before I found my path. When I finished my formal education and got my first job, I realized that from that point on, if I’m going to be all my life an employee, I will never be free. Archives
January 2021
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